MLB PLAYOFFS: WHO'S WORLD SERIOUS?

Let's see: Mets, Tigers, Cardinals and A's contending for the World Series, the Yankees are in disarray... hey, it sounds like the 1980s!

Does that mean the Toronto Blue Jays will go back to the old powder blue pajama top jerseys and start winning like they did in the '80s and '90s? Granted, the way the last few years have gone for the Jays, most fans would settle just for seeing the powder blues again.

CARDS-METS

Save for the blog The Cub Reporter, you can't find anyone who's taking the St. Louis Cardinals over the New York Mets in the National League.

So put yours truly down for a What the Hell pick: Cardinals in 6. No one will remember either way in two weeks' time, so might as well go on a limb and throw the old reputation after that 15-20% chance that St. Louis can knock off the Mets.

Yes, the Cardinals won only 83 games, and yes, they almost blew an 8 1/2-game lead in the final three weeks. Yes, they're starting Jeff Weaver in Game 1 tomorrow night. It would pain me to see ex-Jay Carlos Delgado, whose borderline Hall of Fame credentials would get a big boost from a World Series ring, miss out.

The Mets have a better lineup and a deeper bench, although the back end of their rotation is kind of dodgy. By all logic, they should win, and teams that win only 83 games shouldn't be going to the World Series. Still, if Albert Pujols and one other Cardinals hitter, say Juan Encarnacion, get hot, and if Cards catcher Yadier Molina nullifies base-stealer supreme Jose Reyes, and the Cardinals steal one of the first two games in New York, then by all means this will be a series. Both teams will be into their third and fourth starters when they go to St. Louis.

If it sounds a little flimsy to you, that's because it is. Regardless, put the mid-market Cards in the Series (Pujols will be series MVP) against the A's, a team that averages less than 25,000 fans, and watch Fox executives try to spin-doctor when they get record-low ratings. Hey, serves 'em right for overhyping the New York teams.

TIGERS-A'S

You could argue that the Tigers might be more emotionally spent after vanquishing the Yankees, and that it might be hard to get up for Oakland, now that everyone's on the Detroit bandwagon and expecting them to win.

Associate Blogger Neil Acharya figures the Tigers-A's ALCS will be the best so far this decade, save for the Evil Empires' mini-series back in '03 and '04.

Without going into reams of eye-glazing statistical analysis, yours truly likes the Oakland A's to win in seven games. "Head" picks, in the long run, usually win out over "heart" picks, and while the Tigers are the feel-good story of this baseball year, there's serious questions about the consistency of their starting pitching and their defence. Their lineup, aside from shortstop Carlos Guillen, seems filled with a bunch of guys who can hit a mistake 420 feet, then look awful chasing curveballs the next time through the order. Their walk-to-strikeout ratio was by far the worst in the AL, as they were 13th in both categories.

The A's probably fly under a lot of people's radar screens. They don't have any superstar position players, plus the Moneyball aura has died down. However, they are a fairly patient bunch (.340 team on-base average, 11 points higher than Detroit's) and their pitching staff is at least equal to that of the Tigers.

Granted, the A's have a middle infield of Marco Scutaro and D'Angelo Jimenez, and only Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi would try to pass that off as a championship-calibre double-play combination. Also, if they make the Series, their regular outfield of Jay Payton, Mark Kotsay and Milton Bradley will arguably the weakest for a Series team since the 2000 Mets, who coincidentally, also had Payton starting.

Still, the A's pitching and plate discipline make them too tempting to pass up. Neil is taking the Tigers, with Craig Monroe as MVP; I'll take the A's and Eric Chavez, who's seeking redemption after an injury-riddled regular season, to cop MVP honours.

Admittedly, Barry Zito or Nick Swisher would be safer MVP picks for an A's backer.

Best Deadspin comment on the baseball's final four:

"Yankees in four. What? They're not in the ALCS? ... umm ... Red Sox in five. Huh? The Blue Jays finished ahead of them?

"Jesus, what kind of ALCS is this?"

Anyway... here's some predictions from various experts:

American League
Neil Acharya, Associate Blogger: Tigers in 7 (MVP: Craig Monroe)
Baseball Musings: Gives the Tigers a 60% chance
Batter's Box: A's in 6 (chosen by 33% of poll respondents)
Jeff Blair, Globe and Mail: A's in 7
The Cub Reporter: A's in 7
Cool Standings: Tigers in 6
Scott Carson, Sportsnet.ca: Tigers in 7
Deadspin: Tigers in 7
John Donovan, SI.com: A's in 6
Eric Mack, CBS Sportsline: A's in 6
Charlie McCarthy, CBS Sportsline: A's in 6
Scott Miller, CBS Sportsline: Tigers in 6
Larry Millson, Globe and Mail: Tigers in 7
Adriane Rosen, CBS Sportsline: A's in 6
Toronto Star: Tigers in 6

National League
Neil Acharya, Associate Blogger: Mets in 7 (MVP: Carlos Delgado)
Baseball Musings: Gives the Mets a 70% chance
Batter's Box: Mets in 5 (chosen by 41% of poll respondents)
Jeff Blair, Globe and Mail: Mets in 5
The Cub Reporter: Cards in 7
Cool Standings: Mets in 6
Scott Carson, Sportsnet.ca: Mets in 5
Eric Mack, CBS Sportsline: Mets in 7
Charlie McCarthy, CBS Sportsline: Mets in 6
Scott Miller, CBS Sportsline: Mets in 5
Larry Millson, Globe and Mail: Mets in 6
Adriane Rosen, CBS Sportsline: Mets in 6
Toronto Star: Mets in 5

Back with more later. Send your thoughts to neatesager@yahoo.ca.

Day 2&3 at the (mini) World Series

This and That following the Columbus Southeastern Regional Little League Champs in the LL World Series. It's amazing what we'll do for the coordinated youth.

Poker finalists trying to take out Hollywood vet who represented stars

In a game that gave its name to the expression "poker face", usually framed by sunglasses, a baseball cap or a cowboy hat, Jamie Gold is open-faced and gabby and, thus far at the World Series of Poker's Main Event, incredibly successful.

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Gold, 36, of Malibu, Calif., a former agent who counts future stars Felicity Huffman of Desperate Housewives and James Gandolfini of The Sopranos among his former clients, enters today's final, nine-player table at the World Series' No-Limit Texas Hold'em poker as the chip count leader. That makes him the mathematical favorite to win the $12 million first prize.

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Ulster poker ace walks away with $1,154,527

An Ulster poker star has scooped more than $1m by playing his cards right in the world's toughest poker competition. John Magill, from Co Antrim, has now bowed out of the World Series of Poker Tournament in Las Vegas, picking up a whopping $1,154,527 in prize money.

The Ballymena man finished in an impressive 12th place, just short of the final table and the chance of winning $12m, the richest prize in poker history. John battled through a field of 8,773 poker players to get to the high rank and was the sole remaining representative of the UK and Ireland in the tournament. At one stage, a recount of his stack revealed he had miscounted it and actually had $1m more than he thought.

Florida State student walks away a millionaire

Florida State University student Leif Force Jr. will be returning to Tallahassee as a rich man after placing 11th in the 37th annual World Series of Poker tournament in Las Vegas. His $10,000 buy-in and tight game earned him $1.154 million in the largest live poker event that's ever been held anywhere.

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To make it past the first day is a big deal, he said. To make it to 11th place is almost beyond words. Force was up against 8,773 players, all vying for a portion of the $82 million pot. The winning hand today will get $12 million. Its an awesome job, Force said. I couldnt find one thats better.

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Live from the World Series of Poker

My Shot at the World Series of Poker

I arrived in Las Vegas at 4:00 PM and checked into the Hard Rock Hotel. I was pleased with the room even though I had some initial trouble getting the TV to work. After freshening up a bit, I went down and caught a cab to the Rio.

The World Series of Poker 2006 is being held in the big convention center at the Rio. It is a poker player’s wet dream. There are over 200 tables in action in the main convention center. There are tournaments, satellites, cash games, tv final tables, and spectators. Outside the main room, the online poker sites have set up hospitality suites where you can sign up for their site and even meet some of the pros.

I started by walking around the room and trying to get a lay of the land. I saw too many poker celebrities to mention. I finally stopped a floor person and asked how to sign up for the $1,060 mega satellite. I was directed to the cashier cage where I forked over $1,060 in cash and received my table assignment. I still had an hour to kill, so I wandered around the hospitality suites. I picked up some free swag and wandered back to the tournament table.

As it was getting closer to the start time, I was becoming disappointed because it was obvious that there were not going to be a lot of players. The final total was 34. I figured on a Friday night, there would be a big crowd, but I guess it’s not close enough to the Main Event yet.

Play started at 7:10 PM and I must admit I was a little nervous. I was in the 1 seat so I could only really chat with the players on my left. I introduced myself to Justin, who was a younger man. I found out he had almost finished his economics degree at Carnegie Mellon, but he had put off taking his finals to play in a World Poker Tour Tournament in Southern California. Uh oh. He immediately ordered two Coronas. I would later figure out that the satellite did not mean nearly as much to him as it did to me. He bluffed off a lot of chips and was short stacked for quite some time.

The rest of the players seemed rather average. In the early rounds, I saw a few mistakes in people overplaying top pair, and raising preflop with some questionable hands. My strategy was to play very tight early and use that to my advantage later if needed.

I won my first pot by raising from the button and winning the blinds. My heart was racing and I knew I was going to need to calm down to play my A game. I decided ordering a beer was not a bad idea, so I jumped on the Corona band wagon. That really helped and I immediately felt more comfortable.

A couple of rotations later I picked up pocket fives and limped in for 50. The big blind raised to 200 and the other limpers folded to me. I decided to call and hoped to flop a set. As the dealer burned a card and dealt out a stack of three cards to turn over for the flop, I chanted to myself, “five, five, five!” The flop was 5-8-J. The raiser bets 1000, which is a bit of an overbet on the pot. I calculate how much it would be to raise, and how much I would have left. I decide to just push all in for 2500. Some how he thinks he has the odds to call and all he has is Ace-King. I double up and I am feeling really good.

A little later I flop another set with pocket Jacks. The board is 9-T-J I lead out for about ½ the pot and get called by one other player. An Ace comes on the turn and bet all in. I don’t want any draws to keep going. I have him covered by about 2,000 and he finally mucks. Now I am up to 8600 after this pot.

Things were going really well. At level 4 we were cruising along and suddenly it’s the last hand. I have Kh Qh on the button. There are two limpers for 200. I raise to 600 and they both call. The flop is 9-T-J. I flopped the nuts! The first limper now moves all in. Wow! The second limper folds. I double check my cards and say, “I call.” The first player had 9-T for two pair. The turn and river do not fill him up and I am up to 14,000 in chips by the second break.

That feeling was the absolute highlight of my poker career. For the next 10 minutes on the break I was leaving messages for Jon in Arizona and dreaming of playing in the Main Event. It really felt like it was going to happen. I was catching great cards and even better, others were catching good second best hands.

I did the math in my head and figured out that with 3,000 in starting chips and 34 starting players, that there were 102,000 chips in play. I now had 14,000 in chips at the 2nd break. If I could just maintain my stack by winning an occasional pot or stealing the blinds once in a while I could make it to the final table with an above average stack. I liked my chances in a one table sit and go paying 3 spots.

If it was at all possible, I was going to play even more conservatively, because I could afford to. The blinds at level 5 were 100-200 with a 25 ante. When we got back, there were a few people that had not made it back to their seats. I picked up pocket 4’s in the cut off and I decided to steal the blinds. The big blind was a shorter stack with about 2100 in chips and decided to reraise all in. I was getting 2-1 on my money so I called hoping for over cards. He had pocket Jacks and I lost a small pot there.

When the big blind came back around, I think we were at 100-200 blinds with a 25 ante. With 9 players at the table there was 525 in every pot in the beginning of the hand. It was folded to the small blind. Earlier he had tried to steal and I jokingly told him as my cell phone was ringing, that it was a blind stealing alarm. I need to defend. This time he only limped in. I had K-3 offsuit.

The flop came down K-J-3. The small blind led out for 600. Thinking that I am ahead, but I don’t want to let a draw play cheap or take the chance on getting counterfeited. I decide to raise to 2000. The small blind thinks for a little bit and then raises to 5000 total. Decision time.

This player had raised with weak aces before and had made some aggressive moves earlier in the tournament. I had not seen him get out of line for the last hour though. The only hands I thought someone could reraise me with were K-J for a better two pair or trip Jacks. I decided to lay it down and protect my stack since he had almost as many chips as I did.

Looking back, this is the one hand I really felt I misplayed. I even called the Bluff Radio show and asked Kenna James to analyze the hand. He said my first mistake was not raising preflop. There is 625 in the pot, why not take it. K-3 is a better than average hand, plus it would define my opponent’s hand. If he had been limping with JJ, I would have found out pretty quickly. Then after he bet on the flop, I should have just smooth called. He could be betting with a King or a Jack. I don’t think he would lead out that big with trips because I had not shown any strength at all. He would try to keep me in the hand. I can smooth call the turn and make sure a Jack doesn’t come or and Ace or 9. If I dodge those, then I am almost a lock to win the hand. My guess now is that he had Ace-King. He tried to slow play in the beginning and then was trying to take all my chips with the reraise.

After hearing the opinions of Kenna James and others on the 2+2 board, I think I missed a great chance to break him here.

From this point forward, I pretty much went card dead. I did pick up Aces once, but only picked up the blinds. I also reraised all in with AK after a tight player raised in early position preflop. I figured she would lay down anything but Aces or Kings and if she did not, then I would race for a decent chance to double up.

At the end of level 6 I had been chipped away to 8000 with the blinds going up to 400-800 with 100 antes. We had made it to the final table. I wanted to push all in against the stacks that were my size thinking I could get them to fold a very high percentage of the time. The problem was that the medium stacks were also calling stations so I wasn’t as comfortable that they would realize they should fold hands like King Jack.

The other problem is that my cards were so awful that I did not want to go bust with a hand like 10-5 offsuit. I just couldn’t live with myself. I was very patient and finally picked up 66 under the gun. I raised all in and one player called for all his chips. Before I turned it over, he asked if I had Aces. I had been playing so tight, he thought he might be beat. He turned over Kings and I did not improve. I did not have enough to even pay the big blind the next hand. I went out in 7th place after my Jack-Ten did not improve.

So the so called good news was that I made $208 back from my $1,060. When I left, I felt like I had played the best I could. I was very patient and remained focused for the entire tournament. Obviously I could have made a couple of better decisions, but I cannot fault the effort that I put into the tournament. I think that’s all I can ask of myself.

World Series of Pop Culture

I consider myself a master of useless pop culture knowledge, but I don't have shit on my cousin Erin.

Erin is competing on VH1's World Series of Pop Culture and the episode she's on will air this tuesday (7/11). Not sure what time it's on in your neck of the woods, but if you don't catch it then, I'm pretty sure VH1 will re-run it until the end of time.

I had to make sure my Tivo is set NOT to record every goddamn episode of Flavor of Love considering they re-ran it around the clock a few months back. So I'm thinking the WSOPC will be on a few times.

But if you do watch, cheer on my cousin and her team "Cheetara" as they take on some bonifide trivia geeks for a prize of $250,000. I don't know how she did, she couldn't tell us. But she was wearing a solid gold crown that said "Queen of Trivia" when I saw her last....who knows.

Shit. And I thought winning a $50 bar tab when I go out and do trivia was pretty sweet. Oh well, maybe I'll just stick to free hot wings and Budweiser, that might be more of my speed.

JR

World Series of Pop Culture

I wrote in February that I would be the perfect candidate for VH1's World Series of Pop Culture. I take that back. As much as I would like to believe that I have vast knowledge of useless information, I am really struggling with many of the show's questions. There was just a question about what 70s rock band was featured in an episode of What's Happening in which Rerun was going to tape the band's concert (or something like that). No idea. Feel free to guess the answer (without searching the internet).

I just did very well in the category where you have to name the actor who was in the three named movies. Maybe there's still hope for me!

Finally Denied, Not Pleased

Never too late, I finally received confirmation from PokerStars and Harrah's on my World Series of Poker start date.

I did not get my first choice, but rather my second choice date of 7/30, the third of four possible starting dates. I am not sure what to say about this or how to feel. It's not that big a deal, and who knows, maybe my starting table and seat will prove lucky beyond imagination. If I cruise to day 2 with 80k in chips, you likely will not hear me bitching about how I wish I could have played tomorrow.

But on another level, may I toss a giant "Get Fucked" to PokerStars and Harrah's for not hooking me up with my preference. I only qualified five full weeks ago, so the mere fact that I did not find out until just today when I was playing was a giant inconvenience and a matter of some anxiety.

The only conclusions are that PokerStars sat on their hands and waited to register players in batches, not doing so until weeks after I won my seat, or that Harrah's received the wire transfer for my seat in plenty of time but did not process it until after the Day 1D had been fully booked. Either way, I got penalized for somebody's poor administration and I am not happy about it. I suppose that Harrah's could have not offered anyone a weighted preference on their start date and assigned people to flights arbitrarily or worse, at their own private and secret behest. But the point is they did offer, and if you qualified live in a Harrah's satellite or by buying your way in directly, you were given an advantage that we dirtbag internet qualifiers were denied.

This type of thing merely underscores all the reports I have been hearing and reading from Vegas, which seem to indicate that Harrah's has done a royal rogering of this event. The players are not happy, the dealers are downright mutinous, and the press is pissed because coverage has become the province of corporate exclusives, with ESPN and CardPlayer defending their monopoly with lethal force aimed at anyone who might undermine their brand.

Almost everyone that is not a corporate partner or sponsor of the World Series of Poker seems pretty annoyed with Harrah's and the general consensus is that after receiving a break for transition pains the first time around in 2005, they are stepping on more toes and providing much worse service this time around. My starting date delay and denial just register as par for the course.

Sooner or later, this type of thing is bound to cause real trouble. A group of name players recently filed a lawsuit against the World Poker Tour Enterprises, and though I have a hard time imagining them proving their torts in court, it does not have to get that far to cause problems for WPT Enterprises, or force changes in the way they run their events. The bottom line is the players are unhappy with the way they are being exploited, and with any luck the WSOP brand will be next to feel their (our) wrath.

I have a lot of sympathy for the WPT, much more than I have for Harrah's who claims no real history with poker and no investment in its development--they just swooped in to buy Binion's when the old casino went bust from mismanagement, a calculated move to hijack what they correctly perceived as a valuable brand (they could give a shit about Binion's actual casino...).

But the WPT DID do a lot for poker, specifically for the income of the big name players who are doing better financially than they ever did prior to the WPT's first broadcast season. Their innovation definitely helped create the popularity that poker now enjoys.

But does that get them a free pass for pushing greedy releases on players or freerolling with their personal images? At a certain point, the arguments against the complaining players start to sound a lot like the flack baseball players got in the late 1960s when they fought against baseball's reserve clause. You hear stuff like, "WPT MADE this poker boom possible, and because of WPT these guys got rich. They are doing better than they ever did, so how dare they complain now?!"

As completely true as it is disingenuous and irrelevant. Nobody tunes in to see a brand, they watch because they want to see the players. And the players seem to be playing an awful lot for the privilege of competing for these vast sums. I paid ten freaking grand for my chance (well, took it off of other degenerates but still...) and I would like to not feel like I went on a corporate camping trip and woke up with a logo in my ass.

P.S. Please do not quote me on any of this if I play deep enough in the tournament to get profiled by ESPN.